Toronto Maple Leafs’ Offseason Outlook: Forwards
The Leafs are searching for additions up front, but who specifically should they be looking at?
Now that the Stanley Cup has been handed out and the Tampa Bay Lightning have repeated as cup champions, all eyes now turn to the 32 NHL General Managers as we look ahead to the Seattle Expansion Draft, the NHL Entry Draft, and Free Agency.
In the first part of my offseason outlook, we are going to be taking a look at the Leafs roster up front - who they have heading into next season, what needs to change, and some potential targets to achieve said changes.
Let’s get into it.
Buckle up, this one’s a long one.
(feel free to skip to the TL; DR at the end to get my ranked offseason wishlist)
With the “Big Four” almost certainly all returning for another run at trying to finally do the thing, tinkering will need to be done around the edges and 12 days away from the start of free agency, the Leafs’ biggest story heading into July 28th will be the status of Zach Hyman.
The hometown winger has been with the Leafs since he made his debut in 2015 and playing on a bargain deal at $2.25 million for the past four seasons, he is surely in for quite the raise this summer. Whether that is with the Leafs or not, the crux of this article is that not much needs to change.
Toronto’s forward group, save from a couple of players, was largely impressive this season. But the first change we are likely going to see is the mutual divorce between Joe Thornton and the team. The 42-year-old was simply ineffective as the season wore on and especially into the playoffs, he just did not have the same legs anymore.
Getting younger and faster in the bottom six will be paramount this offseason and internal graduations could be the smartest avenue to do so. Players like Adam Brooks, Nick Robertson, and potentially Joey Anderson too are all competing for a top 12 spot come training camp and I would not be surprised if all three end up as full-time NHLers at some point next season.
Similarly, kind of forgotten in Leafsnation’s projections for next year is the arrival of Kirill Semyonov. Kyle Dubas and the Russian center agreed to a one-year, $825,000 contract on May 5th, and like Alexander Barabanov this past season, Semyonov is going to get every opportunity to succeed in the early going.
But even so, following the Lightning’s model, it is important to find players who can play for excess value. Find free agents who can play way above what their cap hit would indicate. Finding the 2021 offseason version of Carter Verhaeghe.
That is ultimately what is going to lead this team to success - savvy and smart offseason additions. With that in mind, here are some potential trade/free agent targets the Toronto Maple Leafs should be looking at.
Top-Six Targets
Conor Garland
Outside of Jack Eichel, Garland is likely the most skilled forward that is going to be available this offseason.
“The Coyotes have not treated Garland like the player who was the heartbeat of their team. Garland’s camp, led by agent Peter Cooney, submitted two contract proposals (as requested by the club) on May 20 and there has been zero communication or dialogue since. “We’re just looking for Conor to be paid respectfully like the core player he was for the Coyotes,” Cooney told Daily Faceoff on Tuesday. It appears that will be elsewhere, which is no real shock given that Arizona nearly moved Garland in the days prior to April’s trade deadline.” – Frank Seravalli, Dailyfaceoff.com.
The 25-year-old RFA broke out in 2020-21 with 39 points in 49 in games, equaling his point total from last season in 19 fewer games.
It is still quite puzzling why the Arizona Coyotes are looking to move on from the Massachusetts native, but nevertheless, the Toronto Maple Leafs seemed very interested in making a deal work near the trade deadline as it was reported Dubas had his eyes on the winger as his main trade target. The franchise then swiftly went to the Columbus Blue Jackets and acquired Nick Foligno when a deal with the Coyotes never materialized.
As a clear top-six forward, it is easy to envision Garland as a possible replacement when Hyman leaves this offseason. Four years younger and more offensively gifted, he has plenty of room to still round out his game. Acquiring Garland is an extremely enticing move as he staples himself at #1 on my offseason wishlist.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: four-years, $4.7 million AAV.
Tomas Tatar
Speaking of Hyman replacements, someone who is surely going to fly under the radar this summer, due to incompetent coaching from Dominque Ducharme, is Tomas Tatar.
The 30-year-old is a little bit older than #11 but is likely going to command shorter-term and also comes with less injury risk. But most importantly, what separates Tatar and Hyman is their playmaking capabilities. Likely playing on the Leafs’ first line with Matthews and Marner, Tatar would represent a better dual-threat and a killer transition machine.
Controlling shot impacts at both ends of the ice better than Hyman this season, Tatar remains my #2 target this offseason.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: three-years, $5.2 million AAV.
Blake Coleman
Rounding out the potential Zach Hyman replacements, for the second straight playoffs, the hockey universe is revelling over Blake Coleman’s skillset. The tenacious two-way winger is a hound anchoring the Lightning’s third line.
Playing at a $1.8 million cap hit for the past three seasons, Coleman is going to command a hefty raise which the Florida franchise simply cannot afford. Now, even though some believe Coleman wants to go back home to Dallas, he should be on the Leafs shortlist.
Beefing up the top-six is exactly what the Leafs should be after this summer and inking a proven playoff performer like Coleman would be a wise investment by Leafs’ management. The versatility the winger would bring being able to play on any line from 1-3 and any wing – right or left – would be a welcome addition to a roster that lacked some malleability this season.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: four-years, $4.7 million AAV.
Middle-Six Targets
Michael Bunting
Someone who has risen through the ranks of potentially being Verhaeghe 2.0 is Toronto native, Michael Bunting. The soon-to-be 26-year-old had an excellent 2020-21 finishing with 10 goals in 21 games to begin his NHL career, but his impressive season does not stop there.
Sixth in goals per 60 just behind Mikko Rantanen and Brad Marchand and just ahead of Max Pacioretty, Alex Ovechkin, and Connor McDavid. 12th in goals per game behind Ovechkin, Alexander Barkov, Pacioretty, and Kirill Kaprizov, and ahead of Joe Pavelski, Anders Lee, and Kyle Connor.
Now, a large part of that has to do with an unsustainable shooting percentage of 26% (which is why his player card is highly inflated and useless to include) but that is still encouraging, nonetheless. What also makes Bunting an extremely interesting talent is who he models his game after – Brad Marchand.
Soon after he was drafted in the fourth round by the Coyotes, Bunting had this to say about comparing himself to the Bruins pest:
"I like to fashion my game after a guy like Brad Marchand. I'm kind of a feisty kind of guy that's not afraid to get into the corners and do the dirty work but be able to contribute offensively. That's what I love to do - I love to kind of get under other players' skins but I also love putting up big points for the team."
On-ice it is clear Bunting brings a lot to the table, but off-ice the fit between him and the Leafs could not be more perfect. He has noted he is best friends with Toronto Marlie center Tyler Gaudet, Bunting's girlfriend, Jordan McDonnell, works in minor hockey development for the Leafs, and Dubas was his GM with the Soo Greyhounds when Bunting played there in 2014 and 2015.
This past season, Bunting spent most of his minutes alongside Garland and Nick Schmaltz, two highly skilled forwards. In that sense, it is easy to imagine him succeeding alongside John Tavares and William Nylander.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: one-year, $1.07 million.
Mikael Granlund
The Leafs have long been rumoured to be interested in the Finnish forward, having attempted to sign Granlund last offseason and then trying to acquire him again at this past trade deadline.
Having failed twice, it would not surprise me to see the third time’s the charm and Dubas finally manages to ink the versatile forward. But Toronto would be betting Granlund can rediscover his Minnesota game playing with better linemates with the Leafs. In his last two seasons with the Predators, Granlund has played at around or just above a 40-point pace, quite a significant drop off from his 60-point seasons with the Wild.
Similar to Coleman, the lure of Granlund is his flexibility. He can play all three forward positions anywhere in the middle-six with the skillset to fill in on the first line in a pinch should an injury occur. However, the Leafs can ill afford to be making bets this offseason. Heading into a crucial 2021-22, Toronto needs more sure things, so far that reason, Granlund falls a little lower on my wishlist.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: one-year, $3.225 million/three-years, $5.036 million AAV.
Warren Foegele
The 6”2, 200 lbs native of Markham, Ontario has raised some eyebrows in recent weeks as most assumed the Carolina Hurricanes would move heaven and earth to keep the tenacious winger. However, that does not seem to be the case.
As an RFA, Foegele is in the market for some more playing time next season and the Leafs would be the perfect player to offer him as such. With a similar skillset to Hyman, Foegele could be the perfect addition.
(numbers in percentile among forwards)
He remains a more adept penalty killer, using his aggressive skating stride to be “a dog on a bone" as Jeff McKercher, a former scout for the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs, used to describe the 25-year-old. As an equal counterpart in the forechecking department to Hyman and playing in a more difficult role, Foegele represents an extremely interesting trade target for Toronto.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: four-years, $3.5 million AAV.
The Leafs could essentially swap out Alex Kerfoot’s AAV for Foegele’s and would come out of this offseason looking like bandits.
Kevin Labanc
Labanc is someone who I have had my eye on for a while now - since the Sharks cup run in 2016 - and as the team moves towards a rebuild and transitions away from their current core, the 25-year-old winger could be on his way out of California.
At a modest $4.725 million cap hit for the next three seasons, Labanc’s contract is extremely palatable – one the Leafs can easily afford. However, as someone who has not taken that next step yet, that contract could start to look worse and worse sooner rather than later. It is quite alarming that since while many of his advanced analytics are great, Labanc frequently lacks focus or hockey sense in certain situations, as well as the impulse to take ill-advised penalties.
Getting bumped out of San Jose’s top six in the latter portion of this season and watching players like Rudolfs Balcers and Alexander Barabanov playing with Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl instead, Labanc found himself on the wing of centermen like Dylan Gambrell, Alex True, and Patrick Marleau. With reduced ice time as the season waned, it is hard to tell what Labanc is at this stage of his career.
Nevertheless, there is some talent there, and depending on what the return could look like, buying low on Labanc could be a wise decision. But with so much uncertainty with him right now, Labanc falls lower on my wishlist.
Nick Bonino
Bonino gets his own section here as he does not really fit into the middle-six targets above as he is clearly a third-line center, but he is also too good to be wedged into the “third line quick hits” section you will see below.
Similar to Labanc, Bonino is a player who I have liked for years now, going back to his magical run with the Penguins in 2016, resulting in one of the calls of the decade. The absolute perfect model of a 3C, the 33-year-old is exactly what the Leafs should be after this offseason. Already with two Stanley Cups under his belt, Bonino will be inexpensive (Evolving-Hockey projects 2x$2.5million) and experienced.
A great two-way player, Bonino has made a career for himself living in his teams’ defensive zone. Over the last three seasons combined, Bonino ranks third in the NHL among forwards in total (even-strength + shorthanded) defensive goals above replacement, behind Marcus Foligno and Mark Stone. This also comes with the third most defensive zone starts among forwards in that time frame.
Buried in the defensive zone and still coming out on top, the hallmark of Bonino’s game, and still being an above-average offensive facilitator is what makes the veteran such an attractive free agent target.
Tyler Bertuzzi
I want to touch on Bertuzzi here for a little bit as it seems I am in the minority. There is no denying his talents and the Sudbury, Ontario native is exactly what this Leafs team could use. But there is a reason I could not use his 2020-21 player card (this is from 2019-20) – Bertuzzi only played nine games this season due to a major back injury.
I’d be concerned about any player who had spine surgery let alone a 26-year-old who plays the way Bertuzzi does. Couple that with the fact he is going to fetch a strong return with Steve Yzerman doing the negotiating and an RFA with two 20-goal seasons under his belt – so he will surely ask for a contract along the lines of that value – and the Leafs would be better off focusing their offseason search somewhere else.
Third-Line Quick Hits
Josh Leivo
The former Leaf is an interesting target this offseason as an excellent defensive forward with average offensive talents as well. My only question is if there remains some ill-will between him and the team as Mike Babcock refused to play the Ontario native.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: one-year, $1 million.
Jared McCann
McCann has been one of the more underrated, versatile forwards in the NHL over the past couple of seasons as he finished second in GAR this season behind only Connor McDavid and ninth over the past two seasons. So why would the Penguins look to move him?
After signing Teddy Blueger on Wednesday, depending on how the other cards fall, that could potentially leave McCann exposed and the Penguins would be wise to cash in on him and offload the forward for other assets, instead of losing him for nothing.
It remains to be seen what the Pens do (which is why he is not higher on my list), but if McCann is available, the former Soo Greyhound immediately enters my top five.
Derek Ryan
Ryan is extremely interesting. The Leafs have been rumoured to be in on him for a while now and in terms of two-way, inexpensive, and experienced centers available this offseason, Ryan is on the shortlist. An excellent play driver at both ends of the ice (fifth in even-strength defensive GAR over the last four seasons), I question if he would be able to do so against higher competition, though, which drops his appeal a little bit.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: two-years, $2 million AAV.
Paul Stastny
Stastny can absolutely still play and as a 35-year-old versatile forward who is entering the latter stages of his career, maybe he accepts a minimal contract to join a contender. By any stretch of the imagination, Stastny would be a great addition, although, I worry about falling into the same trap as last season with too many over 30+ forwards.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: one-year, $2 million.
Troy Terry
At only 23-years-old, soon to be 24, the Ducks winger has yet to really break out in the NHL. At a modest $1.45 million for this season and next, Terry could be an interesting third-line addition as a decent even-strength, two-way threat. And according to Elliotte Friedman, the Ducks had made the winger available at this season’s trade deadline.
"One young player who might be up for a change of scenery is Troy Terry in Anaheim. I'm starting to hear some conversation about him and whether or not he might go somewhere else to get a change from the Ducks."
Plus, he is good friends with Auston Matthews.
Calle Jarnkrok
The Jarnkrok-to-Toronto rumours come via David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period as the Predator forward can play all three positions up front and especially excels in the defensive zone. However, he struggles with the other aspects of his game, but either way, at $2 million for next season, the Leafs could do worse acquiring the Swede.
Sam Gagner
The London, Ontario native played for the Toronto Marlies in 2018-19 and can still be a solid contributor at even-strength. But like Ryan, I wonder if he can do so against tougher competition. Plus, he is not a very good special-teams player.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: one-year, $1 million.
Brock Mcginn
An excellent even-strength defensive forward and menace on the penalty kill, Mcginn could be an intriguing addition to the Leafs’ third line. At what he is projected to sign for, he might be on the more expensive side for third-line wingers, but he has a connection to new Leafs’ assistant coach Dean Chynoweth. I would prefer someone with more offensive abilities in his role, though.
Evolving-Hockey Contract Prediction: three-years, $2.7 million AAV.
The TL; DR
Wow, that was a lot of players. If you are here for the quick rundown, here are my top 16 forward targets this offseason:
Conor Garland
Tomas Tatar
Blake Coleman
Warren Foegele
Nick Bonino
Michael Bunting
Mikael Granlund
Kevin Labanc
Josh Leivo
Derek Ryan
Jared McCann (higher if available)
Troy Terry
Paul Stastny
Calle Jarnkrok
Brock McGinn
Sam Gagner
But before I go, I wanted to leave you with this little crazy rumour and two names to keep an eye on…
Alex Tuch/Chandler Stephenson
What??? I know, bear with me for a second. Tuch and Stephenson are absolutely not available…but maybe in one specific scenario. It has long been rumoured the Vegas Golden Knights have been in on Jack Eichel and should the two sides agree to a trade, it is possible Tuch and Stephenson are part of the return.
Pagnotta at TFP speculated this last week:
“Okay, hear me out: Would the Vegas Golden Knights package up Alex Tuch, Chandler Stephenson, Cody Glass and Nic Hague in a deal for Jack Eichel? Would the Buffalo Sabres say no? The Sabres have drops crumbs and the Knights are sniffing around. Curious if it gets anywhere.”
In that scenario, Tuch and Stephenson would surely not fit the Sabres contention window, so maybe Kevyn Adams looks to flip both those players for future assets to another team.
Tuch, 25 (5x$4.75 million), and Stephenson, 27 (3x$2.75 million) are both on extreme value deals and would both be welcome additions to a Leafs roster in need of more of those.
Kyle Dubas has a major couple of weeks ahead so stay tuned for part two.
(stats and contract projections via Evolving-Hockey; player cards vis JFresh)