So, The ‘Big Four’ are Coming Back - Now What?
Where do we go from here with a foundational change seeming unlikely?
During their yearly end-of-season press conference post-playoff defeat, many did not expect Kyle Dubas or Brendan Shanahan to reveal anything of substance. Tuning in to hear how the Leafs brass would try to explain away another disappointing postseason, it was quite peculiar to see both going out of their way to double down in the core and the belief they can win with Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares, and William Nylander.
There was zero hesitancy to suggest the team would be looking at all their options this summer, no, the team wanted to send the message the Shanaplan is still in full effect.
It remains to be seen if that is a wise decision, and only time will tell, but as we sit here a few weeks from the beginning of free agency, we are still left wondering what happens next. We don’t know what this off-season has in store and who of the supporting cast will be back, but let’s examine some of the options head coach Sheldon Keefe has next season to finally break the Leafs’ 17-year playoff drought. But first, a couple of caveats:
Zach Hyman is not coming back. As unfortunate as it is, that is the way it is looking.
The Seattle Kraken take Justin Holl as the Leafs go 7-3-1, protecting Alex Kerfoot.
Alex Galchenyuk is resigned on a fairly similar contract.
Kirill Semyonov is given the first crack as the #4C, similar to Alexander Barabanov.
Let’s get into it.
Option #1: Run it back
The most boring option, and the one that seems the likeliest, would be to run the “Big Four” back as the same duos they were this year, while shuffling out the supporting cast and bringing in fresh faces around the core.
Although this would be the least sexy approach, there is some merit behind it. Matthews is the best goal scorer in the NHL and Marner is a top-five passer/playmaker. Nylander is coming off an incredible playoff performance and Tavares is Mr. Consistency.
Removing the so-called “shutdown line” and going with a more offensive touch lower in the lineup could provide the necessary depth to insulate the top six should a cold streak appear again. Someone along the lines of Jesper Fast (or a center of similar nature if Kerfoot plays wing), who signed at a $2 million AAV last offseason should be the type of player Dubas should be looking for to round out the bottom six.
Likewise, moving on from the ageing Joe Thornton in favour of the more fleet-footed Semyonov would surely make Toronto’s fourth line significantly more effective than the trio we saw vs. Montreal.
I know nobody wants to hear it, but the reality is if the Leafs run it back, there’s enough room along the edges where internal promotions and smart UFA signings (in the younger forward market) could improve this forward corps tremendously.
Option #2: Run it back…with a little twist
The idea behind this little switcheroo would be rewarding Nylander for his outstanding play vs. Montreal. Easily the Leafs best forward and the only one of their stars to actually show up, the 25-year-old deserves everything next season as one of the few reasons that series went seven games.
Simultaneously, this would send a message to Marner (and Matthews as well but mostly #16) if he would like his top spot back alongside his best friend and co-assistant captain and be treated like the superstar him and his camp thinks he is, then it is time to put up or shut up for the entire season – not just 82 games.
Even though making decisions out of spite is never a good idea, there is some on-ice merit behind this idea. When you have two $11 million forwards, spreading out the talent sounds like a smart idea. And likewise, they should not need to play together to be successful.
If you look around the league, many other teams follow this same practice as well. Aleksander Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Brayden Point/Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos.
We have seen what each can do driving their own lines as Marner registered 94 points alongside Tavares in 2018-19, with the Leafs captain finishing with a career-high 47 goals. #34 enjoyed some success as well with 40, 34, and 37 goals, respectively, in his first three seasons as Nylander and Hyman were his two most common linemates in the early going before Matthews joined up alongside Kasperi Kapanen and Patrick Marleau in 2018-19.
This approach may very well be in the cards next season. We all know Sheldon Keefe is not afraid to try new things, so I suspect this lineup could be trotted out more than once in 2021-22.
Option #3: Really spread ‘em out
The most drastic change and one that is the least likely would be to completely revamp how the Leafs approach their forward group.
Building off that point about Matthews in 2018-19, he has experience playing with lesser linemates and has showed the ability to prop them up. There is no question Kyle Dubas could take a page out of Bill Zito’s playbook – where he signed Carter Verhaeghe ($1 million AAV) and Anthony Duclair ($1.7 million AAV) to flank Barkov on the Panthers’ first line – and bring in cheaper free agents the Leafs’ Hart Trophy runner up could boost.
But the backbone of this lineup would be the terrifying third line Keefe could create, keeping the lethal trio of Galchenyuk-Kerfoot-Nylander together, who tormented the Montreal Canadiens to the tune of seven goals and 18 points in seven games.
This would model the Penguins’ 2016 “HBK” line that featured Carl Hagelin, Nick Bonino, and Phil Kessel. Those three were able to destroy opposing defenses as majority of their focus was tailored towards the Sidney Crosby- and Evgeni Malkin-lead lines.
However, with this approach, Matthews’, Marner’s, and Tavares’ minutes would need to be scaled back as well, which in turn could make those three more effective.
Tavares only averaged just over 18 minutes this past season, and once he transitioned back towards his own sticks mid-way through the season, his play picked up tremendously as a result. But perhaps fatigue caught up to Marner and Matthews during the postseason, as the duo averaged close to 25 and 24 minutes respectively.
The one consternation I have with this mock lineup would be what to do with Ilya Mikheyev. I personally am a big fan of what the Russian winger brought to the Leafs third line this season, with his tenacity, size, and speed at the forefront of what makes him a pain to play against.
Most fans, as they should, are often left frustrated with Mikheyev as his lack of finishing became an ongoing issue this season. Nevertheless, there is still some talent there, but, with Galchenyuk and Nylander locked into the the third line winger spots and Spezza and Simmonds not fit for minutes above the fourth line, Mikheyev seems to be left without a place.
It is possible reuniting him with Tavares and Marner on the second line, where he started his NHL career, #65 can rediscover his 2019-20 form, but there is little room for error in 2021-22, so I’d suspect filling that void would be an external signing.
July 28th. The Toronto Maple Leafs still have a long ways away before free agency begins and it will be even longer until we see if their moves have paid off, but one thing is for sure - change is afoot.